The lowest level since the COVID-19 lockdown in March 2020, Pakistan’s monthly OMC sales of 1.06 million tons were down drastically by 31 percent year over year and 25 percent month over month in September 2023.
The main causes of this fall, according to Topline Securities, were record-high prices, illicit Iranian oil imports, and a decrease in the production of power using FO.
Pakistan recorded lowest monthly OMC sales of 1mn tons in September 2023, the lowest level since COVID lockdown in March 2020. This decline was primarily attributed to record-high prices, smuggled oil from Iran, and lower FO-based power generation. pic.twitter.com/2HJT7Kaj1p
— Topline Securities (@toplinesec) October 2, 2023
Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales totaled 0.97 million tons in September 2023, a decrease of 20% year over year and 24% month over month.
Oil sales for the first quarter of FY24 totaled 3.8 million tons, a 15% YoY decline. Sales of oil outside of FO decreased 1% YoY to 3.5 million tons.
Sales of high-speed diesel (HSD) reached 394,000 tons in September 2023, the lowest level since the COVID lockdown in March 2020. Sales decreased by 24% YoY and 28% MoM as a result of rising diesel prices. From Rs. 293 per litre in August 2023 to Rs. 330 per litre in September 2023, HSD prices increased by 12%.
Additionally, MS sales decreased 18% YoY and 23% MoM to 518,000 tons in September 2023, the lowest level since March 2020. This is also because demand has decreased as a result of the significant increase in gasoline costs. From Rs. 290 per litre in August 2023 to Rs. 331 per litre in September 2023, the price of gasoline increased by 14%.
Due to decreased FO-based power generation, FO sales for September 2023 decreased by 72 percent YoY and 28% MoM to 84,000 tons.
The sales of Pakistan State Oil (PSO), one of the listed companies, fell to 510,000 tons in September 2023, down 37% YoY and 30% MoM. This was primarily caused by decreased sales generally in all segments, but FO was the main cause with a 94 percent YoY and 61 percent MoM decline.
Shell Pakistan (SHEL) sales declined by 30 percent YoY and 18 percent MoM to 80,000 tons. Similarly, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales also declined by 13 percent YoY and 18,000 MoM to 123,000 tons.
The brokerage firm believes the recent decline in petrol and diesel prices along with tight security over borders will improve next month’s oil sales.